The U.S. policy environment in 2025 is gradually reshaping how enterprises, Global Capability Centers (GCCs), and service providers think about delivery and workforce strategy. While only one of the recent measures is active today, several others are in flight through legislative or administrative review. Together, they signal a move toward stronger domestic job protection, higher transparency in offshoring, and tighter oversight of foreign talent inflows.
Everest Group’s analysis of four key measures, namely the HIRE Act, the Keep Call Centers in America Bill, the proposal to limit international students, and the H1B visa fee overhaul, shows that the combined effect could increase delivery costs moderately, alter talent strategies, and intensify the focus on automation and compliance.
The overall impact will be incremental rather than disruptive, but the direction is clear. Organizations that diversify their delivery models, build transparency into governance, and invest in automation will be better positioned to navigate this evolving environment.
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The HIRE Act: A new lens on offshore cost
The Halting International Relocation of Employment (HIRE) Act of 2025 aims to discourage large-scale offshoring of service-sector jobs from the U.S. It proposes a 25 percent excise tax on outsourcing payments made to foreign entities for services benefiting U.S. customers, along with a new disclosure and eligibility requirements for federal contracts.
The bill is under Senate Finance Committee review and remains a legislative proposal. Its probability of full enforcement is moderate, but its implications are already being modeled by enterprises and providers. If implemented, total delivery costs could rise between 5 and 20 percent depending on how broadly the tax is applied and whether nearshore or captive models qualify for exemptions.
Impact areas are emerging clearly
- Offshore delivery will remain central but will face higher compliance, reporting, and transparency requirements
- Nearshore markets such as Mexico and Costa Rica could gain share because of proximity advantages and partial treaty protection
- GCCs will become more attractive for U.S. firms that want cost efficiency with greater control and compliance alignment
- Buyers and providers will rebalance delivery exposure rather than undertake full-scale reshoring
Even under a strong enforcement scenario, a large movement of work back to the U.S. is unlikely because onshore delivery remains two to three times more expensive and constrained by digital talent shortages
Keep Call Centers in America Bill: Limited in scope but raises visibility
The Keep Call Centers in America Bill seeks to retain customer service and contact center jobs within the U.S., focusing on federally funded or regulated programs such as healthcare and banking. It would require these programs to operate from U.S. locations and create a public registry of firms that move voice work abroad.
The bill has been reintroduced and is under Commerce and Labor Committee review. Enforcement probability is moderate, but the near-term scope is likely to remain narrow. If fully implemented, delivery costs for covered portfolios could rise 25 to 50 percent, but such a broad outcome is unlikely given cost realities and U.S. labor constraints.
Key implications include:
- Regulated or federally linked portfolios may gradually shift to domestic delivery while commercial work remains offshore or nearshore
- Automation and Artificial Intelligence (AI) will accelerate as enterprises use digital channels to offset rising compliance and labor costs
- Nearshore locations will continue to serve commercial accounts but would not qualify as compliant for federally linked programs
- Rural and secondary U.S. cities could see targeted expansion for lower-cost, compliance-ready delivery
The most likely outcome is targeted enforcement for high-visibility programs, coupled with reputational scrutiny for firms that continue large-scale offshoring of customer service operations
Proposal to limit international students: Gradual tightening of U.S. STEM talent supply
The proposal to limit international students, currently under review by the Departments of Homeland Security and Education, aims to reduce foreign student inflows and shorten post-graduation work authorization in Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics programs.
Although this proposal is still administrative and not yet codified, its long-term impact could be significant. A restricted supply of early-career STEM talent would drive wage inflation and hiring friction within the U.S. labor market. Everest Group estimates wage growth could accelerate by 3 to 5 percent annually above current trends, adding up to a 15 to 25 percent cumulative increase in entry-level technical roles over five years.
Implications are likely to include
- Expansion of offshore and nearshore delivery to maintain scale and manage cost escalation
- GCC growth in key talent markets such as India, the Philippines, and Canada to secure continuity
- U.S. delivery concentrating more on senior, client-facing, and regulated roles while early-career work shifts offshore or becomes automated
- Stronger university partnerships abroad and integrated workforce planning to balance automation and hiring
The impact will build gradually, shaping long-term workforce and location strategies rather than triggering short-term disruption
H1B visa fee overhaul: The only active policy so far
The H1B visa fee overhaul, enacted through an executive proclamation in September 2025, is currently the only active measure among the four. It introduces a one-time fee of USD 100,000 for new H1B petitions filed outside the U.S. and revises wage criteria to favor higher-paid and higher-skilled roles. Renewals and extensions are exempt for now, but the policy’s continuation beyond its initial 12-month term remains uncertain.
The immediate impact is measurable. Onsite-heavy portfolios are seeing a 5 to 15 percent increase in onsite costs, translating to a 2 to 5 percent rise in total contract value depending on the delivery mix. If extended or codified, these effects could become structural.
Observed implications include
- Expansion of offshore delivery as companies reduce dependency on visa-based onsite staffing
- Nearshore capacity growth, particularly in Canada and Mexico, to maintain client proximity without visa exposure
- Selective U.S. hiring for critical onsite coordination and leadership roles while execution remains offshore
- Greater emphasis on automation and hybrid staffing models to manage cost and compliance
The measure has reinforced a trend already underway toward more distributed delivery portfolios and lower reliance on onsite workforces
The combined effect: Evolution, not disruption
Across all four initiatives, the pattern is consistent. The direction of policy is toward greater domestic employment protection and transparency, but the practical impact is incremental. Offshore and nearshore delivery will remain the economic foundation of global services because the cost and scalability advantages remain substantial.
Everest Group’s modeling suggests that if multiple measures advance simultaneously, the combined effect could lift total contract values by 2 to 8 percent. This increase would come from higher compliance and reporting requirements, visa-related costs, and inflationary wage trends rather than from large-scale relocation of delivery.
The shift is already visible in how organizations are responding
- Diversification is accelerating: Enterprises are spreading work across multiple regions and shoring models to balance risk and compliance exposure
- Automation intensity is rising: AI and digital workflow tools are being scaled to absorb tax and wage pressures while maintaining productivity
- GCCs are taking center stage: Captive models are becoming the preferred vehicle for transparency and control while preserving cost efficiency
- Contracts are evolving: Commercial terms now include pass-through clauses for policy-linked costs and flexibility to move work between offshore, nearshore, and onshore
- Governance is strengthening: Organizations are investing in dashboards that track workforce mix, location exposure, and compliance risks across delivery regions
The way forward
The 2025 U.S. policy environment reflects a tightening of global labor and sourcing rules rather than a reversal of globalization. The winners in this new phase will be those that act early to adapt.
Enterprises, GCCs, and service providers that diversify their delivery portfolios, accelerate automation, and embed compliance transparency into their operations will sustain competitiveness despite rising complexity. Offshore and nearshore delivery will continue to anchor cost efficiency, but success will increasingly depend on agility, data-driven governance, and long-term workforce resilience.
If you found this blog interesting, check out our Beyond The Hype: Unpacking The Risks Associated With Global Capability Centers (GCCs) | Blog – Everest Group, which delves deeper into another topic regarding GCCs.
To learn more about the evolution of GCCs and the ever-changing shifts of US policy, please contact Akshay Mathur ([email protected]).
