Impacts of the India-Pakistan Escalation on Global Services Delivery

Current Assessment

As of May 10, 2025 7:30 AM EDT, India and Pakistan have agreed to a ceasefire. The agreement was confirmed by both nations’ foreign ministries.

This development marks a significant de-escalation after recent escalation of hostilities, including missile and drone strikes. While the ceasefire reduces immediate conflict risk, underlying tensions persist. Therefore, Everest is lowering the India-Pakistan conflict risk rating from 4 to 3.

We will continue to monitor the situation for compliance with the ceasefire and any further developments.

As of May 8, 2025 Everest Group has updated India’s risk rating to Level 4: Elevated on a 5-point scale (where 5 represents the highest risk) – reflecting a significant escalation in geopolitical and operational risk, particularly due to direct military exchanges with Pakistan. While core service delivery has not been materially disputed yet, the situation is fluid, and global firms are actively elevating their business continuity responses, tightening operational controls, and preparing for further escalation. 

Impact on Global Services

Amid intensifying conflict, India’s global services sector is showing operational continuity, but the risk environment now demands heightened vigilance and action.

  • Service delivery remains intact - for now

    Core operations continue with minimal disruption, though contingency activation is underway in higher-risk zones.

  • Business continuity plans elevated

    Companies are shifting select high priority work to centers in southern India or outside India, reinforcing backup centers, and ensuring readiness for full-scale remote operations.

  • Region-specific exposure reviews

    Organizations are reassessing risk in cities closest to the conflict zones, especially North Indian hubs.

  • Security and communications protocols upgraded

    Enhanced controls are being implemented for employee safety, emergency response, and leadership coordination.

  • Aggressive scenario modeling in play

    Firms are evaluating immediate-to-midterm fallout and building response triggers for potential telecom outages, transit shutdowns, or expanded hostilities.

While global services operations remain functional, the environment now requires near-daily risk assessment and real-time responsiveness.

Everest Group Risk Score Criteria

India-Pakistan Conflict: Level 3 Moderate Risk

Risk Level 1: Favorable operating conditions with limited disruption

Business impact: Business as usual; high service continuity; optimal talent availability

Triggers:

  • Strong governance, regulatory maturity
  • Low crime/natural disaster risk
  • Stable geopolitical climate
  • Sound infrastructure

Recommended enterprise response:

• Optimize operations
• Long-term strategic investments
• Use as a core delivery hub

Risk Level 2: Minor issues may emerge but do not affect service delivery materially

Business impact: Limited impact on operations; minimal contingency actions needed

Triggers:

  • Localized tension (protests, terror attacks, border skirmishes)
  • Moderate weather events
  • Noticeable regulatory or economic changes

Recommended enterprise response:

  • Maintain BCP hygiene
  • Diversify teams within the region
  • Monitor secondary sites

Risk Level 3: Risk factors rising; proactive mitigation needed

Business impact: May cause temporary service disruption or site-specific performance declines

Triggers:

  • Sustained cross-military skirmishes, limited and localized to sensitive border areas
  • Increased cyber threats
  • Energy shortages
  • Localized natural disasters
  • High inflation or FX instability

Recommended enterprise response:

  • Activate light BCP
  • Identify critical work to move; start moving select work
  • Plan scenarios and communicate with clients

Risk Level 4: Ongoing or imminent disruptions require real-time responses

Business impact: High probability of delivery disruption or employee safety concerns, select sites inoperable

Triggers:

  • Limited armed conflict not limited to border areas
  • Wide-scale disaster: flood, typhoon, fire, earthquake, power grid failure, etc.
  • Significant instability – political, economic, or regulatory

Recommended enterprise response:

  • Move critical work to unaffected sites
  • Reallocate workloads
  • Secure team safety (relocation, remote work)
  • Continuous communication to teams, clients, and stakeholders

Risk Level 5: Severe and sustained instability or catastrophe affecting operations long term

Business impact: Large-scale delivery shutdown at multiple sites; threat to workforce and IP

Triggers:

  • War, imminent regime collapse
  • Citywide shutdowns or infrastructure collapse
  • Natural disasters with recovery times of more than a month
  • Major economic crisis

Recommended enterprise response:

  • Execute relocation plans
  • Suspend physical ops in the affected region
  • Migrate substantial work to other locations

Timely, fact-based guidance

We are committed to delivering real-time monitoring and expert guidance to help organizations plan with confidence.

For more detailed insights, download our Risk Radar published May 07, 2025.

Risk Radar

 

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