Tag: locations

Argentina’s Dollarization Dilemma – Assessing Potential Implications | Blog

Implementing dollarization can help resolve Argentina’s economic woes and ongoing inflation, but it poses complex challenges for stakeholders. Read on to explore the opportunities, obstacles, and financial and operational impacts for global companies in Argentina.

Argentina’s chronic economic struggles, characterized by persistent inflation and macroeconomic instability, have reignited the debate surrounding dollarization – adopting the US dollar as its official currency. This alarming scenario of soaring inflation signifies the culmination of decades marked by fiscal mismanagement and monetary recklessness that have deeply impacted the country.

In 1991, Argentina implemented a currency peg between the peso and the dollar to combat inflation. Then-president Carlos Menem proposed fully dollarizing the economy in 1999. However, the dollar peg collapsed amid a severe recession, leading President Eduardo Duhalde to dissolve the 1:1 link in early 2002. During his winning campaign, Argentina’s newly elected president, Javier Milei, championed the dollarization proposal.

While dollarization holds the allure of offering a solution to the country’s woes and chronic inflation, it presents complex challenges for global companies, investors, and other stakeholders.

Potential benefits of dollarization

The potential benefits of dollarization are enticing and include:

  • Hyperinflation tamer: Argentina is experiencing its highest annual inflation rate in three decades (soaring to 254.2% in January 2024), eroding the value of the peso and crippling economic activity. By anchoring the currency to the relatively stable US dollar, dollarization could bring immediate respite from this inflationary ordeal

Picture1 2

Picture2 2

  • Fiscal discipline enforcer: Fiscal discipline is paramount, and dollarization would eliminate the central bank’s ability to print pesos and fuel government spending. This could potentially lead to more responsible budgeting and reduce deficits
  • Foreign investment magnet: A dollarized economy would eliminate currency risk, bolster investor confidence, and attract foreign investment. This influx of capital could stimulate economic growth and job creation

Risks of dollarization

While dollarization has the potential to control hyperinflation and stabilize the economy, adopting it also poses the following significant risks:

  • Surrender of monetary sovereignty: By adopting the dollar, Argentina loses control over its monetary policy, a powerful tool for managing economic cycles and responding to shocks. This can limit the government’s ability to stimulate the economy during downturns
  • Reduced export competitiveness: While dollarization may attract investments into the country, it is also likely to make Argentine exports relatively more expensive, hindering international market competitiveness. This could hamper overall economic growth, particularly in export-oriented sectors
  • Heightened poverty: Reduced government spending due to fiscal constraints could stretch social safety nets thin for the already vulnerable two-thirds of the population below the poverty line. This could exacerbate social inequality and unrest
  • Impact on relations with China: This proposed move brings to light a crucial but often neglected concern regarding the continuity of the currency swap line between the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA) and The People’s Bank of China (PBOC). This swap line has recently played a pivotal role in averting default on Argentina’s obligations to the International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Dollarization has financial and operational implications for global companies operating in Argentina. Let’s explore these repercussions further.

Financial implications

During the transition to a dollarized economy, global companies may face challenges in hedging due to foreign exchange fluctuations, necessitating careful currency risk management and financial strategy adaptation to maintain profitability. As the currency strengthens, local costs (such as salaries, rentals, and other expenses) will increase, prompting a need to reconsider cost structures through automation or outsourcing to remain competitive.

Additionally, determining transfer pricing between the Argentine subsidiary and other branches will raise new challenges, requiring close compliance attention as tax authorities might scrutinize pricing strategies under the new regime.

Operational repercussions

The uncertainty surrounding dollarization’s impact in Argentina may lead global companies to postpone investments until the dust settles, potentially stalling short-term economic growth and job creation.

Moreover, exchange rate fluctuations during the transition could disrupt supply chains, impacting the seamless flow of goods and services. To address this, building resilient supply chains that incorporate local sourcing alternatives to mitigate potential disruptions effectively becomes critical.

Impact on the competitive landscape

Dollarization could potentially level the playing field for global companies compared to local competitors, as currency risk would cease to be a distinguishing factor. This would likely heighten competition and market consolidation. In the medium to long term, a stable currency environment may attract a wave of investors, further intensifying competition for existing global firms.

However, this stability may also pose challenges for talent retention, as the stronger currency could inflate the cost of retaining skilled employees. To counter this, global companies will need to offer competitive compensation and robust career development opportunities to attract and retain top talent amid changing economic dynamics.

Impact on investors

For investors, dollarization presents a multifaceted landscape. On the one hand, it offers the potential for reduced uncertainty through a stable currency environment, mitigating exchange rate fluctuations and providing greater predictability for investments.

Additionally, dollarization may attract skilled expatriates, thus adding diverse perspectives and enhancing the talent pool. Moreover, if successful, dollarization could pave the way for potentially higher returns on investments in the long run, fuelled by economic growth spurred by the new currency regime.

However, investors must also be wary of these challenges that come with dollarization:

  • Firstly, an influx of foreign investors drawn by a stable currency could intensify competition in certain sectors, necessitating strategic adjustments and potentially impacting profitability
  • Secondly, Argentina’s economic fortunes would become inextricably linked to US monetary policy, introducing new risks and potentially limiting the government’s ability to respond to local economic needs
  • Finally, if not implemented carefully, dollarization could aggravate social tensions and inequality, impact overall stability, and create a less conducive investment environment

What lessons has history taught us?

Valuable insights can be gained by looking at Ecuador and Panama’s experiences with dollarization. While both countries adopted the measure to tackle economic instability, their experiences illustrate the differing potential outcomes of this complex policy.

Panama adopted the US dollar as its official currency in 1903, driven by political uncertainty and a desire for economic integration. Its dollarized economy has enjoyed remarkable stability and growth over the past century, albeit with ongoing challenges related to income inequality.

Ecuador adopted dollarization in 2000 following chronic inflation and currency devaluation. While it saw initial success in taming inflation and attracting investment, long-term challenges such as dependence on oil exports and income inequality persisted. Despite improved macroeconomic stability, Ecuador still struggles with high unemployment and poverty.

Other countries that have gone through dollarization include El Salvador, Zimbabwe, Cambodia, and Turks and Caicos.

The outlook for dollarization

In June 2023, the average monthly salary for a software developer in Argentina was about 500,000 pesos, as reported by the country’s software and computer services observatory. At that time, this salary translated to over US$2,000. However, by January 2024, the equivalent amount decreased to US$650 owing to the peso’s depreciation.

To counter this, some private firms in Argentina have been partially paying employee salaries in dollars to retain skilled talent. Companies such as Mercado Libre, Accenture, and Globant offer partial salaries in dollars as the peso crashes. Along with this, some businesses have started to accept payments in dollars. For example, GoDaddy has stopped accepting pesos and only accepts US dollars in payments. However, this is the exception, not the norm, and everyone doesn’t share the enthusiasm to dollarize.

Investment bank JP Morgan, among other economists, has cautioned that Argentina lacks the necessary prerequisites for implementing the plan, which requires a substantial foreign currency reserve and significantly higher savings rates.

While dollarization promises to be a silver bullet solution if executed effectively, its potential adoption in Argentina presents a complex scenario with inherent risks. Adopting dollarization would entail relinquishing Argentina’s control over its economic policies, representing a significant gamble with long-term implications. It’s crucial to recognize that dollarization is not a one-size-fits-all remedy and does not offer a comprehensive solution to Argentina’s economic challenges.

Stakeholders must carefully weigh the potential benefits and drawbacks to ensure they are well-positioned to thrive in the evolving economic landscape. Seeking expert guidance can help enterprises navigate this intricate landscape and make informed choices that align with individual strategic objectives and risk tolerance.

To learn more about key market dynamics and related opportunities in Argentina, read our latest report, Location Spotlight – Argentina.

To discuss the global services industry in Argentina, please contact Parul Jain ([email protected]) or Harshit Mittal ([email protected]).

Explore Everest Group Talent Genius™, the AI-powered insights platform to guide IT and BPS location and workforce decisions.

Everest Group Talent Demand Growth Index | India IT Services | Blog

Welcome to our monthly India IT services talent demand index. We are excited to bring you this comprehensive analysis, powered by Talent Genius™, our AI-powered insights platform purpose-built to guide IT and Business Process Services location and workforce decisions. To gain a deeper understanding of the capabilities of Talent Genius and learn how to book a demo, watch this quick 2-minute video, Introducing Talent Genius™.

Monthly India IT services talent demand tracker

Previous slide
Next slide

Here is our in-depth analyses of the India IT services industry demand:

December 2023

Demand for IT services in India hit a 17-month low due to declining spending and clients postponing projects. As a result, most Indian IT service providers are reexamining revenue and hiring forecasts. The overall demand across service providers decreased by 28% from last month and 11% from the previous year.

Many service providers slowed hiring, realizing they posted jobs too early and hired ahead of the demand. Service providers are now focusing on improving employee utilization rates and do not anticipate the job requirements returning to the original levels anytime soon. Demand for IT services also declined by a notable 20 percent across enterprises from November.

Overall, the second half was slower than the first half, with demand falling by 7% for service providers and 4% for enterprises. Service providers were impacted more as enterprises cut discretionary spending and insourced some work.

At the city level, demand for employees declined consistently across tier 1, 2, and 3 cities. After peaking in November, the workforce requirements in Hyderabad and Chennai fell significantly by 32% this month.

Demand hit its lowest point of the year across all segments. Despite relatively stable employment over the last few months, retail and healthcare had the biggest drop at 35%. While it is uncertain if this is the bottom, a full recovery is not expected in the near future.

November 2023 update

IT services demand in India increased by 9% month-on-month and 5% year-on-year. Demand for IT application data management (ADM) grew 9.5%, and IT infrastructure increased 5 percent compared to the prior month. However, the surge is expected to be temporary because macroeconomic conditions pushed IT project timelines ahead for most companies.

Talent demand increased more in tier 2/3 cities than tier 1 cities, indicating that enterprises are increasingly confident in hiring outside tier 1 cities to gain a labor cost arbitrage advantage.

The number of available positions increased in all tier 1 cities, except Kolkata, where the job postings fell for the second consecutive month. Since the prior month, job openings increased 18% in Hyderabad and 14% in Chennai, representing the highest month-on-month increase.

Among tier 2/3 cities, Jaipur recorded one of the highest month-on-month increases in open positions at 34%. All the other cities experienced increased monthly postings – except for Chandigarh and Thiruvananthapuram.

IT services demand increased across all industry segments, with service providers and manufacturing demonstrating the most strength, up 5% from October.

Demand fluctuates more for service providers than other enterprises. As clients cut back on outsourcing spending, the talent need from service providers is expected to decrease in the coming months.

October 2023 update

The demand for IT services in India declined by 9% from last month but increased by 5% year-on-year, with significant variation over the past few months. Despite the shifts, demand remains near the same level as May 2023, when IT services demand increased after being at its 12-month lowest the prior month.

Tier 2/3 cities continued to be more attractive for companies seeking employees. Hyderabad and Kolkata had the biggest monthly drop in talent demand among tier 1 cities at 15% and 12%, respectively. Employee talent needs remained the most stable in Pune, with only a 5% drop compared to the previous month.

Although demand for most roles declined, help desk engineer, data analyst, and business analyst roles continued to increase by about 5% monthly. Only the retail segment maintained net positive month-on-month growth rates at about 7%. Cyclical commodities and service providers declined the most by 12% and 7% month-on-month.

Over the past few months, India IT talent demand has been volatile across roles, cities, and industries. Talent demand is expected to continue to fluctuate as major Indian IT service providers lose contracts and enterprises explore more insourcing opportunities.

September 2023 update

The demand for IT services in India jumped by 19% on a month-on-month basis after declining for two consecutive months. The year-on-year increase of 22% pointed to a significant uptick in hiring activities this month, rebounding from the slowness over the previous few months.

On a month-to-month basis, demand again surged in tier 2/3 cities compared to tier 1 cities. The increased reliance on tier 2/3 cities suggests a growing client preference for cost-effective IT service delivery locations.

Among tier 1 locations, Hyderabad and Kolkata bounced back the strongest with 36% and 35% growth in demand on a month-on-month basis. All locations in the three top tiers showed increased IT services demand – except for Pune, which dropped slightly.

Every major industry segment, except for banking, financial services, and insurance (BFSI), returned with increased demand. Service providers led the chart with a 22% increase in job demand compared to last month. However, BFSI declined 23% from the prior month.

August 2023 update

The demand for IT services declined for two consecutive months after recording a 14-month high in June 2023. Demand fell by 16% month-on-month and 32% on a year-on-year basis. At a segment level, IT ADM and IT infrastructure declined from July.

This trend could be a result of a quick fix by employers to adjust for the hiring surge in the second quarter of 2023. If the pattern continues, employee attrition will rise. However, the demand will likely pick up in the next few months as the end of the year nears.

Tier 1 cities continue to experience a higher decline in demand than tier 2/3 cities on a month-on-month basis, indicating the preference by enterprises to leverage low-cost talent from tier 2/3 cities.

At a city level, Kolkata witnessed the sharpest decline in demand at 47% and had an all-time low in the last 20 months. Among leading tier 2/3 cities, Kochi and Thiruvananthapuram showed the least decline in month-on-month demand.

The surge in demand by industry sectors halted, with consumer packaged goods registering the greatest decline since July. Business and professional services also reversed the growth trend.

A slightly higher decline in month-on-month demand across service providers that has continued for several months now clearly indicates increased insourcing by enterprises.

July 2023 update

While the month-on-month view showed a 9% drop in the IT services talent demand trend in India, demand grew 17% over the prior three months and by 32% year-on-year.

Tier 1 cities witnessed a relatively higher decline than tier 2/3 cities month-on-month, showcasing the increased leverage of tier 2/3 Indian cities. This trend is consistent across most tier 1 and tier 2/3 cities. Jaipur and Coimbatore are the only exceptions across tier 2/3 cities, showing 10% and 3% growth, respectively. Among tier 1 cities, Mumbai and Kolkata witnessed the highest decline, while Pune recorded the lowest decline of approximately 2%.

Service providers witnessed the highest decline of all industry verticals for IT services demand over the past year. Business and professional services and consumer packaged goods saw a slight uptick in demand.

June 2023 update

The demand for IT services in India showed further recovery and grew by 15% compared to May 2023. For the first time in the last six months, demand also showed growth on a year-on-year basis (21% growth compared to June 2023). At a segment level, both IT ADM and IT infrastructure segments witnessed 14-month high demand levels in June 2023, with IT infra talent demand growing 40% on a year-on-year basis.

The growth trend, which started in May, is solidifying and was consistent across all cities, though the extent of recovery varied. Chennai saw a modest recovery, whereas Mumbai saw a significant spike in demand. We believe the demand surge in Mumbai may not be entirely due to net new demand but could be due to talent management/attrition challenges arising from the hybrid/in-office model and the need to back-fill resources.

The demand from service providers continues to grow, and we believe there is more focus on hiring laterals this year compared to the previous year, which saw a significant uptick in campus hiring. This increase could also be due to multiple large deals that are at play in the market and providers hiring in anticipation of winning large business in the medium term.

May 2023 update 

The demand for IT services in India showed a recovery in the month of May, growing by 34% compared to the previous month and staying flat compared to 2022. This spike compared to March and April could be attributed to buyers placing demand ahead of the summer in key onshore geographies, which tend to be slower from a business perspective. The increase in demand was consistent across both tier-1 and tier-2/3 cities; however, the recovery was much steeper for tier-1 cities (growing 14% YoY) compared to tier-2/3 cities (shrinking by 20% on a YoY basis). Among the tier-1 cities, all showed an uptick in demand; however, Pune set a demand record of a 17-month high. The service provider segment, while it showed recovery compared to the previous month, on a YoY basis, registered a 7% decline in demand. On similar lines, BFSI and technology & communications verticals continue to show a declining demand trend on a YoY basis. 

April 2023 update

The demand for IT services in India further shrunk by 17% in April, reaching a 16-month low, and declined by 29% on a year-on-year basis. The impact of the anticipated global economic slowdown is clearly visible in the latest demand trends. 

The declining trend is consistent across both tier-1 and tier-2/3 cities. Among tier-1 cities, Chennai, followed by Delhi-NCR, witnessed the highest decline. Tier-2 cities saw an even higher decline on a year-on-year basis at 32%. At this point, the demand for IT services talent in India is almost 50% of the demand in January 2022. However, this trend needs to be observed over a slightly longer period. If this trend continues for a few more months, the already reduced attrition numbers are likely to come down further. 

Being the first month of the new fiscal year for many leading India-heritage service providers, this indicates a not so good start to the year 2023-24, and declining talent demand is deeply correlated to reduced business growth.

March 2023 update

After five consecutive months of demand growth/stability, the demand for IT services in India dropped significantly (21%) in March and by 36% on a year-on-year basis. The declining trend in March was consistent across all tier-1 cities, though Mumbai witnessed the lowest decline among all tier-1 cities. 

The demand in tier-2/3 cities also reduced by 26% on a year-on-year basis. This overall declining trend is expected as Q1 2022 witnessed a significantly higher demand due to attrition and talent wars faced by the industry, and with the current economic environment, most companies are not in an expansion mode.  

Stay tuned for regular monthly updates as we monitor the landscape of the India IT services industry demand market. We’ll continue to provide the latest insights and trends, so you stay well-informed on locations and workforce developments.

Locations and Workforce Strategy 2024: Insights, Trends, and Key Priorities | Webinar

On-Demand webinar

Locations and Workforce Strategy 2024: Insights, Trends, and Key Priorities

What crucial insights from last year can locations and workforce strategy leaders apply to 2024, and what will be the critical priorities this year and beyond?

In this webinar, our experts explored the anticipated trends shaping 2024’s workforce and locations strategies. We discussed the impact of geopolitical and macroeconomic changes on locations, as well as the potential future direction of shoring strategies.

Attendees gathered beneficial insights into strategic workforce decision-making for 2024 and ongoing, with a focus on methodologies for creating an optimized, balanced locations portfolio.

What questions did the webinar answer for the participants?

  • What are the key learnings from 2023 in the locations and workforce strategy space?
  • What are the top strategic priorities for locations and workforce strategy heads in 2024?
  • Which locations offer untapped talent potential?
  • How can locations and workforce strategy leadership leverage key trends for 2024 to achieve an optimal locations portfolio?

Who should attend?

  • Location strategy heads
  • Workforce strategy heads
  • Delivery heads
  • GBS strategy heads
  • Global sourcing heads
  • CHROs
  • HR heads
  • SVM teams
Jain Parul
Vice President
Everest Group
Kumar Sumit
Practice Director
Everest Group
Kumar Santhosh
Aniruddha edited

Key Issues 2024: Creating Accelerated Value in a Dynamic World | Webinar


Key Issues 2024: Creating Accelerated Value in a Dynamic World

In an era of ceaseless change, ever-evolving market dynamics, and an unrelenting demand for progress, the traditional pace of value creation is no longer enough. Creating accelerated value has become paramount for business leaders.

How do you achieve accelerated value? Enterprises must embrace innovation while effectively managing change. This approach will help businesses navigate rapid transformation while ensuring stability and sustainability.

Watch this webinar to gain valuable insights into the current perspectives of IT-BP industry leaders.

We discussed the major concerns, expectations, and trends for 2024 and provided recommendations on how to drive accelerated value from global services – helping position organizations to plan and align goals and succeed in 2024.

What questions has the webinar answered for the participants?

  • What are the key challenges and priorities and the outlook for global services in 2024?
  • What are the likely changes in sourcing spend, sourcing strategy (in-house vs. outsource), and locations?
  • Which digital services and next-generation capabilities are expected to be in demand?
  • How will generative AI impact the global services industry?
  • How are outsourcing deals, enterprises’ leverage of service providers, and bill rates expected to change?

Who should attend?

  • CIOs, CDOs, CTOs, CFOs, CPOs
  • Service providers
  • GBS / Shared services center heads
  • Global services leaders
  • Locations heads
Agarwalla Hrishi
Vice President
Malhotra Bhanushee
Practice Director
Mittal Alisha
Vice President
Ranjan Rajesh

How can we engage?

Please let us know how we can help you on your journey.

Contact Us

"*" indicates required fields

Please review our Privacy Notice and check the box below to consent to the use of Personal Data that you provide.