Outsourcing Archives - Page 8 Of 9

Are Rising Costs the Only Impact Immigration Reform Bills Will Have on the Services Industry? | Sherpas in Blue Shirts

March 9, 2017

When U.S. congressmen Darrel Issa and Scott Peters at the very beginning of 2017 proposed a bill that would increase H-1B visa holders’ wages to US$100,000, experts in the industry were positive that IT service providers would be able to manage it, as they were already bearing costs between US$75-85K. But less than a month later, U.S. Congressman Zoe Lofgren’s introduction of the “The High-Skilled Integrity and Fairness Act of 2017” – a bill that aims to double the minimum salaries for H-1B visa holders to minimum US$130,000 – eroded 5 percent of the Indian IT service providers’ market.

Although U.S. President Trump’s subsequent congressional speech talked about merit being the criteria for visa allotment – and many businesses rejoiced that he made no mention of minimum wage as the deciding factor – it’s fair to assume that the minimum wage might still end up near US$130,000 in a merit-based lottery system.

But cost is only one of the possible impacts of visa reforms on the parties directly and indirectly involved in the services industry. Let’s take a look.

Impacts on service providers

A landed resource might continue to be indispensable for projects when his or her role is primarily that of liaison with between the client’s business units and the provider’s offshore resources (due to time zone differences and established comfort levels) or if he or she was engaged for unique skills or insights. Landed resources serving as liaisons for business units could more easily be replaced by local resources.

H-1B visa reforms are expected to trigger a refocus on driving efficiencies through automation and digital process transformation. This will accelerate the transformation in service providers’ years’ standing talent acquisition operations and processes. The requirement for different skill sets, coupled with cannibalization of traditional revenue streams, paint a less than rosy picture on falling traditional revenues and increasing costs.

We might also see higher consolidation in the outsourcing industry, especially for mid-sized firms, as service providers may look at economies of scale and inorganic account expansion to counter slowing growth and keep cost of operations in check.

Impact on enterprises

U.S. companies might have to bear the brunt economic impact of the demand-supply mismatch. Enterprises today use H-1B resources for a variety of reasons, some to manage their GIC operations. A raise in the average wage will cause inflationary pressure on IT resource costs, restrict supply of talent, and create increased poaching of resources between companies. In other words, enterprises might be forced to hire landed resources at a cost much higher than the perceived value, or lose out on business efficiency and growth, thus creating a vicious cycle that the current administration hopes to break.

Impact on the education sector

The education sector might be most immediately impacted by any stringent visa reform going through. Enrollment of non-U.S. nationals in Master’s programs could plummet, given the likely challenge in finding jobs after graduation. This situation has already been observed in the U.K., where tight visa guidelines have compelled students to return home once they are done with their education. The rest of Europe, which has relatively less stringent visa requirements, might become a hot destination for the Indian student diaspora as demand for technical expertise increases significantly.

In India, it’s clear industry veterans and current leaders are questioning their own hiring tactics and the sustainability of the low cost model. While some have expressed that retraining their current force is difficult as people in senior and middle management are low quality, others have condemned the IT industry as a whole by accusing them of carteling to keep wages low.
This might not float well with new graduates, who increasingly look for jobs at start-ups entering the disruptive digital space. These new companies are offering higher wages and a culture more suited to millennials than do IT service providers.

While it will be wait and watch until we know what clauses in the proposed bill become law, it’s clear that any combination of the above and other impacts will force providers and enterprises to make some major decisions to remain at the top of their game.

Impacts of H-1B Visa Applications Suspension | Sherpas in Blue Shirts

March 8, 2017

There’s a new stake in the ground for H-1B visa reform. Beginning on April 3, 2017, the US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) will temporarily suspend premium processing for all H-1B visa petitions. Large U.S. tech firms stand out as firms that will suffer disruption from the suspension, but the impact will be felt most heavily among India’s service providers, all of which typically use the premium processing option.

The announcement stated the suspension may last for six months and impacts visa applications for FY18. A premium processing fee of $1,225 expedites the normal three to six months wait for visa decisions to 15 days. While there are several potential impacts, two rise above as the most significant threats to business in the near term:

The suspension is more likely to affect current visa extensions than new applicants. Thus, it could cause staffing gaps, especially since there is already a large backlog of applications for visa extensions.
It may hinder Indian providers’ ability to obtain the large number of new visas they desire, so they are likely to rev up their applications in coming months.

Based on the current political climate with an “America First” focus, one could assume that the Trump Administration is the proponent of the suspension, but the USCIS announcement didn’t specify a reason other than the current backlog. However, visa laws are outdated and H-1B visas have been a candidate for the reform “chopping block” for several years. So, what can we glean regarding the progress of visa reform from this recent move?

I believe the suspension could usher in an ideal opportunity to revise the visa program later. Undoubtedly, another outcome that will emerge is increased media attention on Indian service providers versus US jobs, as they historically heavily exploited the visa laws. As I recently blogged, Everest Group already is seeing evidence of businesses postponing or cancelling plans to outsource work to Indian service providers.

Finally, it’s clear that visa reform is still teetering as the existing proposals have not garnered enough compromise and support in Congress. What will be the Trump effect on moving the proposals forward? I’ve watched and blogged about this important issue since May 2013 and will continue monitoring the potential impacts of proposed visa reform.

From Labor Arbitrage to Digital Arbitrage: Shareholder Value in the New IT World | Sherpas in Blue Shirts

March 7, 2017

Recently, corporate developments, such as management changes, corporate governance, and investor activism across Indian IT service providers, have bombarded the investor community. Many investors perceive the initiatives taken by these companies to be a watershed moment in their histories.

Furthermore, with next generation automation, digital services, artificial intelligence (AI), and other disruptors creating massive, requisite, and unavoidable change in the IT services industry, investors and service providers are in increasingly opposing schools of thought. However, many of the investment firms we work with struggle to correlate these developments with their investments and returns.

Given the scale of the IT industry and the pace of disruption happening in the entire ecosystem, it’s valuable to take a few minutes to dissect and analyze the situation.

Growth vs. profitability equation – digital arbitrage vs. labor arbitrage

For the past two decades, Indian IT service providers have reported a stellar net profit margin in the range of 18-25 percent. The business grew on the investments made in human resources. The players achieved impressive returns primarily due to their grip on labor arbitrage. The investor community embraced the stocks, and experienced significant returns. For instance, an investment of US$350 in one of the top Indian IT service providers in 1992 would have yielded US$377,643 in 2015!

The emerging IT services model – driven by digital disruptors – gives little emphasis to labor arbitrage or the providers’ earlier factory model, and instead focuses on innovation and value creation for enterprises that extends far beyond greater efficiency. Not many IT service providers have demonstrated a mindset aligned to these new requirements. They are still hesitant to loosen their noose on profitability, as they set investor expectations very high with their earlier business model.

What is bothering investors?

Investment firms we work with believe that most disruptive technologies will drive lower profitability for Indian IT service providers likely in the 8-15 percent net profit range. They also believe that technology disruption will not allow the same level of offshoring as before, and will further erode profitability.

As most of the Indian IT service providers have zero debt and own huge piles of cash, investors think they should receive distributions in the form of dividends. Their demand is stronger when they learn the providers are going to invest in low-margin digital businesses, as they believe they will not receive the optimal reward they are due.

A twist

Believing that the market is undervaluing their stocks, IT service providers are planning share buybacks, spinning them as a way to reward shareholders. However, they actually plan to reduce tax leakages caused by dividend distribution, as Indian tax law stipulates they pay a 15 percent Dividend Distribution Tax (DDT) on dividends paid. Additionally, the share buybacks help them increase their control over the company.

What is the reality?

Both these opposing schools of thought fail to think in the long term.

Investors looking for dividends aren’t acknowledging Berkshire Hathaway’s theory of dividends. If a business can deliver promising returns in the long-run, dividends act as a negative catalyst for growth. In an attempt to pacify their investors, most of whom are technology novices, most Indian IT service companies are relabeling their old offerings as “digital.” Instead of dividends, investors need to ask IT service providers’ leadership tough questions on how they plan to use their large cash piles relative to their IP, platforms, acquisition, talent development, and client relationship strategies. How do they plan to differentiate in this crowded market? When large-scale offshore development centers fail to provide the needed competitive advantage, what does their armory contain to create shareholder value?

The way in which IT service providers are surrendering to investor pressures gives the impression that they are not willing to utilize their cash for digital technology investments. This in turn reinforces the popular opinion that Indian IT service providers are not confident enough to tide over the current transition. That some of the providers are distributing cash instead of putting the money in beneficial investments is making some market observers uncomfortable.

Furthermore, if the providers are not planning to distribute cash, they must ensure that they use the money for useful investments rather than just share buybacks. This is a win-win situation, as the providers get a boost to their topline and ability to endure the current business transition, and shareholders get maximized wealth in the long term. Net-net, firms that invest wisely are going to withstand the changeover, while those that use their cash piles to temporarily shut out investors are likely to witness a tough time.

Are these companies capable of implementing the business model?

As the adage goes, easier said than done. Although service providers are vocal about re-skilling employees opening onshore centers focused on digital services, the viability of these initiatives are questionable. The majority of these companies have amateur design thinking capabilities, and their DNA is around supplying people, not innovation and strategic partnerships. Indeed, in our recently published report “Customer (Dis) Satisfaction: Why Are Enterprises Unhappy with the Service Providers,” enterprises only gave providers a score of five out of 10 on their strategic partnering abilities.

Only time will tell whether service providers made the right move in distributing cash or investing in low-margin businesses.

Stepping Back from Globalization and Offshoring | Sherpas in Blue Shirts

February 16, 2017

A sea change is starting because of digital technologies. The impact as companies apply these technologies to their business will be massive – much bigger than the Industrial Revolution with the invention of the loom for manufacturing clothing and Ford inventing the production for manufacturing automobiles. Everyone has been talking for some time about how big an impact these technologies will have on the services industry. But there is a new factor now that makes the potential impact even more significant: the protectionist activities driving companies to step back or pause in globalization and offshoring. I think the services industry would be foolish to ignore the potential of this greater impact. Let’s look at where businesses are headed.

There can be no denying that the stakes have been raised and barriers are being put in place to make globalization and offshoring less acceptable and expensive. In Europe, it is evident with the Brexit bill and the UK opting to leave the EU. In the US, protectionist barriers are starting to be executed through proposed changes to immigration law and H-1B visas, tax reform and potential border tax implications, and reputational risks arising to companies from government entities or disgruntled employees and vocal press entities. The result: companies are paying more attention to how to do work onshore without suffering negative cost impacts.

By investing in digital technologies such as Robotic Process Automation (RPA), cognitive computing, automation and cloud, companies can drive cost improvement by dramatically improving the productivity of their workforce. In many cases, they can achieve cost improvement even greater through improved productivity than through labor arbitrage and thus offset impact of not sending their work offshore.

Of course, service providers also can use these technologies to improve their own workforce productivity to offset the potential of rising costs from immigration and H-1B visa reform in the US.

Our market data shows leading providers in the services industry have been looking at digital technologies and associated digital models well before this step back in globalization. Our tracking of service providers clearly shows the traditional services (labor arbitrage, offshore factory model, remote infrastructure management and asset-intensive infrastructure) grew by only .1 percent last year. Almost all the growth in the IT and business process services market came from new digital offerings – which are currently growing at over 18 percent a year.

Although the trend in digital services has already been growing, we believe the current climate discouraging globalization and offshoring will further accelerate the adoption of digital models. This will force the current shared-services structure. It also will force the provider community to fundamentally change their business models and the way they currently structure their business to deliver services.

Digital Models Change the Location of Call Center and Finance / Accounting Work | Sherpas in Blue Shirts

February 15, 2017

Leading companies are re-imagining their call centers and customer experience to integrate digital models into their voice models. Work volumes are shifting from voice call centers into new channels such as chat apps, email, tweets and other social channels. Companies are adopting these new ways of communicating with customers and integrating them into their customer service models. The digital model is disrupting the call center.

A recent Everest Group study showed that across a number of call center situations, companies eliminated 40 percent of the FTEs in their call centers – while improving customer service. They achieved this by applying Robotic Process Automation (RPA) technology. Read more at Peter’s Forbes blog

Companies Face A Deal They Can’t Refuse | Sherpas in Blue Shirts

February 14, 2017

Just a month into 2017, the acceptability sentiment toward sending work offshore has changed. Companies are increasingly eager to explore ways to do work onshore which they would otherwise do offshore or is currently offshore. The question is how to do that without creating a negative cost impact.

A wide variety of factors are shifting the sentiment toward offshoring work, including …

Shedding Light on Proposed High-Wage Immigration Changes | Sherpas in Blue Shirts

February 13, 2017

Although US immigration reform is front and center in the media since the Trump administration took office, the US Congress has debated the need to change immigration legislation for years and has introduced significant proposals since 2013. An integral component is the H-1B work visas heavily used in the global services industry. Right now, the details of visa reform are a moving target, but there is a new angle in the shake-up – the proposed benefits are likely to benefit Global In-house Centers (GICs.

CNBC interviewed Congressman Darrell Issa (R-Calif.) this week about proposed policy changes and his discussions with President Trump. Issa stated that Trump believes foreign service providers are gaming the H-1B visa program, undermining the intent of the program.

He explained that Trump may be more favorable toward a policy capping the minimum H-1B salary at $135,000, as opposed to the current minimum salary of $60,000. Two other minimum salary proposals are on the table: $100,000 proposed by Issa and $132,000 proposed by Rep. Lofgren (D-Calif.). In essence, all three plans thus emphasize focus on allowing visas for high-skilled labor, and Issa affirmed that he expects Congress will pass bipartisan immigration reform dealing with high skills this year.

Two Greatest Impacts from Proposed Changes

It’s still unclear, but it’s likely that the changes won’t affect US providers and tech companies to the same degree as the third-party service providers in India. Changes aim to raise their onshore costs. This will significantly raise costs for H-1B-dependent providers such as Cognizant, Infosys and TCS. Although these firms currently enjoy a competitive advantage over Accenture, Capgemini and IBM, the advantage will narrow and potentially go away with the increased costs.

The second greatest impact from proposed changes is the GICs. Notably, the proposed legislation does not impact firms with GICs. In fact, it is likely to make the Indian GIC model (or captives) more attractive, thereby increasing employment opportunities in these Indian firms and giving these providers a greater share of the offshore pie. Why? Because reducing or restricting the available pool of H-1B talent when there is rising demand for US-based tech talent is likely to create wage inflation.

Although rising tech wages in the US will create a tailwind for all offshore models, GICs may benefit disproportionally because, unlike third-party providers, GICs don’t depend on the H-1B onshore model.

Digital Revolution Impact on Job Creation

Visa reform is not the only factor disrupting the labor arbitrage model. The emerging digital revolution holds the promise of significant productivity increases in the existing workforce – often as much as 30-60 percent. Coupled with US companies’ increasing risk of reputation damage for using offshore services, I believe the move to digital services will accelerate, as its value proposition includes the advantage of onshore delivery and relies less on service delivery based on the offshore labor arbitrage model.

H-1B-dependent service providers will likely use digital technologies and business models to offset the impact of rising wages. A short-term rise in employment is probable, given that it takes some time to implement digital productivity improvements.

No matter which side you’re on, the offshore labor arbitrage market is shifting. The US government definitely is moving aggressively in the direction of significant visa reform, especially focusing on high-skilled workers. However, the other items high on the loaded US policy agenda – especially repealing the Affordable Care Act and changing tax laws) could become a factor moving visa reform to a lower priority.

Don’t Overlook This Cost-Effective Alternative to Offshore Services | Sherpas in Blue Shirts

February 13, 2017

On a worldwide basis, companies are pausing efforts or taking a step back from globalization. In Europe, this is most evident in recent months with Brexit in the UK. In the United States, it is most evident in the proposals underway in Congress and the White House for H-1B visa reform, rising trade barriers, and potential changes to taxes that could change tax implications of offshoring. Although the extent of changes is not currently known, it is reasonable and probable that they will make offshoring more difficult and more expensive (for customers and their service providers) as well as less socially acceptable. Is your organization one of the many that are now seeking alternatives to sending work offshore to achieve cost reduction?

Cost Impact of Immigration and Visa Reform to US Customers Using Offshore Services | Sherpas in Blue Shirts

February 10, 2017

Most US organizations have substantially used offshore service providers in IT and business process outsourcing (BPO) to drive cost reduction. But there is currently a great deal of discussion in Congress and the Trump Administration – as well as actions taken by Executive Orders in the last seven days – about changing the H-1B and L1 visas. The changes affect the offshoring services provider as well as US enterprise customers that utilize offshored services. What are the impending impacts?

My company collaborates with Rod Bourgeois, head of research and consulting at DeepDive Equity Research, and together we have followed the proposed immigration and visa reform. Since 2013, I’ve blogged many times about the potential impacts. Rod’s January 25, 2017 report, “IT Services: Update on Visa-Reform Risks Facing Indian Outsourcers,” highlights recent proposals. The essence: it now looks like real change is on its way.

IT Future Shifts from Labor Arbitrage to Productivity | Sherpas in Blue Shirts

February 7, 2017

The labor arbitrage/offshoring model is powerful and relatively simple — compared to investing in productivity for U.S. workers over the past couple of decades. Perhaps your company is like most enterprises in America, having opted for this strategy to achieve cost savings. I believe it’s important to recognize that the arbitrage/offshoring model took companies’ attention away from investing in internal productivity improvements. But there are fewer opportunities now for the labor arbitrage model since it is maturing, and new barriers are arising for sending/maintaining U.S. work offshore.

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Category: Outsourcing